高功率电磁环境中多级效应的多项式回归模型
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引用本文:余鹏?覮,田杰.高功率电磁环境中多级效应的多项式回归模型[J].计算技术与自动化,2020,(2):86-92
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余鹏?覮,田杰 (深圳供电局有限公司 电力科学研究院广东 深圳 518000) 
中文摘要:为了评估高功率电磁(HPEM)环境中电子设备的多级效应。提出了一种评估多级效应的统计方法。通过多项式回归可以同时估计出每级效应的发生概率,结合极大似然估计(ML)建立了Softmax模型和相互独立的正态分布假设(MINDA)模型,并进行了数值求解。利用Monte Carlo模拟给出了模型稳定性和估计误差的函数关系。在实验室对计算机通信系统进行了案例研究,以此验证所提模型的有效性和适用性,并给出了故障发生的概率预测。
中文关键词:电磁脉冲  高功率电磁环境  极大似然估计  多级效应评价  多项式回归
 
Polynomial Regression Model for Multi-level Effects in High Power Electromagnetic Environment
Abstract:To evaluate the multi-level effects of electronic devices in high power electromagnetic(HPEM) environments. This paper presents a statistical method for evaluating multi-level effects. The polynomial regression can simultaneously estimate the probability of occurrence of each level of effect. Combined with the maximum likelihood estimation(ML),the Softmax model and the independent normal distribution hypothesis(MINDA) model are established and numerically solved. The Monte Carlo simulation is used to give a model of the stability of the model and the estimation error. A case study of the computer communication system was carried out in the laboratory to verify the validity and applicability of the proposed model,and the probability prediction of the failure occurred.
keywords:EMP  HPEM environment  MLE  multi-level effect evaluation  polynomial regression
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