基于灰参数的等时段序列模型对电网的负荷预测

朱壮春; 叶剑锋

基于灰参数的等时段序列模型对电网的负荷预测

引用本文：朱壮春，叶剑锋.基于灰参数的等时段序列模型对电网的负荷预测[J].计算技术与自动化,2011,(2):34-37

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作者	单位
朱壮春，叶剑锋	(广东省乳源县泉水水电厂,广东乳源512700)

中文摘要:利用基本灰色模型GM(1,1)法对某县1994～2005年的全社会用电量进行预测，结果显示预测精度较低，误差较大。基于此，提出一种电力系统中长期负荷预测的实用方法，即基于灰参数的等时段序列模型预测法。利用此方法预测该县2006～2010年的电力负荷，实例分析表明，该方法预测精度较高，可作为中长期电力负荷预测的实用工具之一。

中文关键词:灰色模型GM(1,1) 电力负荷预测灰参数分等时段序列拟合度

Load Forecasting of Grid Based on Equal Time Sequence Model of Gray Parameters

Abstract:The basic method, called GM (1, 1) has been used to forecast the whole social power consumption in one county from 1994 to 2005, but the result shows that precision is not very high. Based on this, it proposes a new metaphase long-term electric power load forecasting whose name is Equal Time Sequence Model of Gray Parameters. Using this method forecasts power consumption in the county from 2006 to 2010. The result shows that the precision is very high and can be used as one of practical tools in metaphase long-term load forecasting.

keywords:GM(1,1) electric power load forecasting grey parameters equal time sequence fitting degree

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