| 基于风险分析的大型电力变压器经济寿命预测算法研究 |
 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：李卫国，俞乾，罗日成.基于风险分析的大型电力变压器经济寿命预测算法研究[J].计算技术与自动化,2012,(1):74-77 |
| 摘要点击次数: 1533 |
| 全文下载次数: 147 |
|
|
| 中文摘要:变压器经济寿命由变压器年平均费用最小的年份来确定, 而变压器总的年平均费用不仅与其购置费和使用维护费用有关，而且与变压器故障所造成的损失相关。文章在变压器经济寿命通用模型的基础上，创新性地将风险理论与变压器经济寿命的计算相结合，提出了变压器故障风险成本的计算方法，分析了变压器设备的费用构成，给出了各项费用的计算方法，进而建立了计及风险成本的变压器经济寿命数学模型，并结合变电站老旧变压器的维修数据，对文章提出的预测算法进行了验证。结果表明, 这种方法能达到令人满意的精度, 具有较强的实用价值。 |
| 中文关键词:电力变压器 风险分析 年平均费用 经济寿命；预测 |
| |
| Research on the Algorithm of Economic Life Forecast for power transformer Based on Risk Analysis |
|
|
| Abstract:The economic life of power transformer is determined by the year when the average annual cost is the lowest , And the average annual cost not only relates to the purchasing cost and the use-maintenance cost, also relates to the loss cause by transformer breakdown. Based on the model of economic life, the method of risk analysis has application in economic lift of power transformer, and an applied computational methods of power transformer fault risk is proposed, the maintenance costs and operation costs are analyzed, the new economic life model of power transformer is established. Combined with the maintenance data of old transformer, the forecast method of transformer economic life is verifed, Forecast results show that this method is satisfactory . |
| keywords:power transformer risk analysis average annual cost economic life prediction |
| 查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载pdf阅读器 |
次