高速公路车流量的预测新模型

孙小军; 曹陆玲; 潘红梅; 王涛

高速公路车流量的预测新模型

引用本文：孙小军,曹陆玲,潘红梅,王涛.高速公路车流量的预测新模型[J].计算技术与自动化,2016,(2):116-119

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作者	单位
孙小军,曹陆玲,潘红梅,王涛	（1. 宝鸡文理学院数学与信息科学学院，陕西宝鸡721013；2. 宝鸡文理学院电子电气工程学院，陕西宝鸡721013；3. 宝鸡文理学院物理与光电技术学院，陕西宝鸡721013）

中文摘要:利用泊松分布，在不考虑随机因素对车流量影响的理想情况下，分别构建出低、高负荷两种状态车流量的数学模型。分析影响高速公路车流量的四个主要随机因素：车速、天气恶劣程度、突发事件、驾驶员对动态视野的感知程度，并设计出更符合实际的高速公路车流量预测模型，为高速公路管理部门合理预测车流量并做好应对准备提供有效的依据。

中文关键词:高速公路泊松分布随机因素预测模型

A New Traffic Flow Prediction Model of Expressway

Abstract:By adopting the Poisson distribution, two mathematical models for expressway traffic flow under the low and high traffic load conditions were established respectively, in which the random factors' impact for expressway traffic flow was omitted. Based on the analysis on the four main random factors influencing the expressway traffic flow: the speed, weather conditions, emergency and driver's perception of the dynamic vision, two practical forecasting models for expressway traffic flow were designed .This work provides a reliable references for expressway management department to predict traffic flow and to make the corresponding preparation.

keywords:expressway poisson distribution random factor forecasting model

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