| 基于云模型的电力负荷预测 |
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| 引用本文：孟 军1，黎 燕2，3，夏哲辉1，罗 安2，岳雨霏2，郭 鹏2.基于云模型的电力负荷预测[J].计算技术与自动化,2018,(2):117-121 |
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| 中文摘要:提出了一种基于云模型的电力负荷预测模型。利用云模型中的云发生器，分别将有限的国民生产总值和工业生产总值的增长率和增长变化率样本数据空间扩充为更具随机性和普遍性的扩展样本数据。以国民生产总值为例，建立国民生产总值与电力负荷之间的规则推理，构造云规则推理器。利用云规则推理器获得电力负荷预测增长率，将国民生产总值和工业生产总值获得的电力负荷预测增长率进行加权平均，并换算得到最终的电力负荷预测值，获得的预测结果精度高。 |
| 中文关键词:云模型 不确定性数据 负荷预测 |
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| Power Load Forecasting Based on Cloud Model |
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| Abstract:This paper proposes a power load forecasting model based on cloud model. Using the cloud generators in the cloud model, the growth rate of the limited GNP and the GIP and the rate of change data are expanded into more random and universal extended sample data. Take GNP as example. Establish the reason rules between the gross national product and the electric power load，and construct the cloud rule reasoning machine. The cloud rule inference device is used to obtain the load forecast growth rate. The load forecast growth rates from GNP and GIP respectively are weighted meant, which are translated into the final load forecast values with high precision. |
| keywords:cloud model uncertainty data load forecasting |
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