考虑光伏时空分布的配电网负荷备用容量计算
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引用本文:张涛1,李先栋1,王琳1,许强1,贾轩1,冀传留2,李芳2.考虑光伏时空分布的配电网负荷备用容量计算[J].计算技术与自动化,2019,(3):22-27
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张涛1,李先栋1,王琳1,许强1,贾轩1,冀传留2,李芳2 (1.国网聊城供电公司山东 聊城 2520002.山东国研电力股份有限公司山东 济南 250000) 
中文摘要:大量的光伏发电接入配电网系统,其出力不确定性为电力系统运行的安全性提出更高要求。为了尽可能减少弃光现象的发生,在提高光伏消纳的基础上需要对光伏接入的配电网系统负荷备用容量计算方法进行研究。首先分析了光伏出力的时空分布规律,进而分析了基于时空分布规律的光伏出力预测误差以及提出采用高斯混合模型的出力预测误差计算方法;然后在此基础上提出一种考虑光伏发电时空分布规律的接入配电网系统负荷备用容量的计算方法。研究结果表明该方法能够较为准确地确定接入光伏的配电网系统负荷备用容量,通过山东省某地区电网实际数据验证了该方法的可行性。
中文关键词:光伏发电  预测误差  高斯混合模型  等效负荷  备用容量
 
Spinning Reserve Capacity Calculation of Distribution Network Considering Temporal and Satial Distribution of Photovoltaic
Abstract:As the massive PV system is integrated into the distribution network,its uncertainty of output requests higher security for the power system operation. For the sake of decreasing the abandonment of PV generation,the research for reserve capacity of distribution network is essential to improve the consumption of PV supply. In the basis of the analysis what the PV power output obeys temporal and spatial distribution,the prediction error of PV output obeying temporal and spatial distribution is analysed. And an algorithm for estimating the prediction error of PV output is proposed by building a Gaussian mixture model (GMM),which consummates the method of computing the spinning reserve capacity of distribution network considering PV injection. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are validated via the real operation data from a State Grid company of Shandong province.
keywords:PV power  forecast error  GMM  equivalent load  spinning reserve capacity
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