基于超短期功率预测的配电网调度模型
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引用本文:董苏.基于超短期功率预测的配电网调度模型[J].计算技术与自动化,2020,(2):73-77
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作者单位
董苏 (国网安徽省电力有限公司 阜阳供电公司安徽 阜阳236000) 
中文摘要:提出了一种基于超短期风电功率预测的滚动配电调度模型。在配电调度过程中,模型不仅可以同时修正传统机组的功率输出,还可以修正风力发电的功率。利用二阶马尔可夫(Markov)链模型对风电预测误差状态(WPPES)进行修正,并更新剩余时段的风电风力发电预测结果。该模型考虑了多时段功率平衡、机组输出调节、上旋备用和下旋备用的约束条件,并结合素数对偶仿射尺度内点法进行求解。最后的仿真验证了该方法的经济性和有效性。
中文关键词:滚动配电调度  超短期预测  马尔可夫链模型  素数对偶仿射尺度内点法
 
Distribution Network Dispatching Model Based on Ultra-Short Term Power Forecasting
Abstract:A rolling generation scheduling model based on ultra-short-term wind power forecasting is proposed.In the process of power generation dispatching,the model can not only revise the power output of traditional units,but also revise the power of wind farm. The second-order Markov chain model is used to modify the WPPES and update the wind power prediction results in the remaining period. The model takes into account the constraints of multi-period power balance,unit output regulation,up-spin and down-spin standby,and is solved by the primal dual affine scaling interior point method. Finally,the simulation results show that the method is economical and effective.
keywords:rolling generation scheduling  ultra-short term prediction  Markov chain model  prime dual affine scaling interior point method
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