RBF神经网络的境外旅游人数预测模型研究

宫园园?覮; 艾宏志

RBF神经网络的境外旅游人数预测模型研究

引用本文：宫园园?覮，艾宏志.RBF神经网络的境外旅游人数预测模型研究[J].计算技术与自动化,2020,(4):159-162

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作者	单位
宫园园?覮，艾宏志	（榆林学院，陕西榆林719000）

中文摘要:针对传统的境外旅游人数预测模型预测误差大的情况，设计了基于RBF神经网络的境外旅游人数预测模型。首先对旅游样本数据进行归一化处理，对境外旅游人数变动统计。然后通过预测种群构建、评估适应值、惩罚项设置、预测序列平稳性检验、模型预测五个过程完成了基于RBF神经网络的境外旅游人数预测模型的设计。最后，实验证明，RBF神经网络的境外旅游人数预测模型比传统的境外旅游人数预测模型误差小，能够准确对境外旅游人数预测。

中文关键词:RBF神经网络旅游人数预测节点误差

Study on Prediction Model of Overseas Tourists Based on RBF Neural Network

Abstract:in view of the large prediction error of the traditional prediction model of the number of overseas tourists，a RBF neural network prediction model of the number of overseas tourists is designed. Firstly，the tourism sample data is normalized，and the number of overseas tourists is counted. Then，the prediction model of overseas tourists based on RBF neural network is designed through five processes：prediction population construction，evaluation of fitness value，penalty item setting，prediction sequence stability test and model prediction. Finally，experiments show that the RBF neural network model designed in this paper has less error than the traditional model，and can accurately predict the number of overseas tourists.

keywords:RBF neural network tourism population prediction node error

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