| 计及条件风险价值和多种热电解耦的风电消纳调度模型 |
投稿时间：2025-12-31 修订日期：2026-01-08  点此下载全文 |
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| 中文摘要:为了充分挖掘热电解耦的灵活性并考虑热电联合系统的运行风险，本文提出了一种考虑条件风险价值(conditional value-at-risk, CVaR)和多种热电解耦措施的热电联合调度模型。首先，已有的热电联合调度模型往往只考虑基于蓄热罐和电锅炉的热电解耦，而本文的调度模型额外考虑了基于机组自身改造的热电解耦，包括旁路供热和低压缸切除改造；其次，在调度模型中采用CVaR来量化系统弃风和失负荷的风险，并达到系统运行经济性和风险性的最优平衡。仿真发现对供热机组进行热力改造，可使弃风率降低到4.58%，系统总成本降低18.03%；同时，CVaR可以有效实现系统经济性和风险性的平衡。 |
| 中文关键词:热电联合调度 热电解耦 条件风险价值 风电消纳 调度模型 灵活性 运行风险 |
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| Wind Power Accommodation Dispatch Model Considering Conditional Value-at-risk and Multiple Heat-power Decoupling Measures |
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| Abstract:To fully exploit the flexibility of thermoelectric decoupling while considering the operational risk of the combined heat and power system, this paper proposes a combined heat and power dispatch model considering the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and multiple heat-power decoupling measures. First, existing combined heat and power dispatch models often only consider the thermoelectric decoupling based on heat storage tanks and electric boilers, while the proposed dispatch model additionally considers the heat-power decoupling based on the transformation of the heating unit itself, including the transformation of bypass heating and low-pressure cylinder cut-off. Secondly, CVaR is used in the proposed model to quantify the risk of systematic wind curtailment and load loss and to achieve the optimal balance between the operational economy and risk. Simulation results indicate that implementing thermodynamic retrofits for heating units can reduce the wind curtailment rate to 4.58% and lower the total system cost by 18.03%. Furthermore, it is observed that CVaR can effectively achieve a balance between the system's economic efficiency and risk exposure. |
| keywords:combined heat-power dispatch heat-power decoupling conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) wind power accommodation dispatch model flexibility operational risk |
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